{"id":6906,"date":"2022-01-11T23:07:26","date_gmt":"2022-01-11T16:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.bitcoinvn.io\/?p=6906"},"modified":"2022-01-11T23:07:26","modified_gmt":"2022-01-11T16:07:26","slug":"nam-2022-neu-lam-phat-khong-giam-thi-sao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinvn.io\/insights\/vi\/nam-2022-neu-lam-phat-khong-giam-thi-sao\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u0103m 2022, n\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec sao?"},"content":{"rendered":"

***B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft g\u1ed1c<\/a> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia s\u1ebb d\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng <\/i><\/em>Joachim Klement<\/i><\/u><\/em><\/a> – \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ef9 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Vi\u1ec7n CFA. B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t d\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 <\/i>Joachim Klement do BitcoinVN News<\/a> th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n.<\/i><\/em><\/p>\n

V\u00e0o nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u d\u00e0nh th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 th\u01b0 gi\u00e3n, ngh\u1ec9 ng\u01a1i sau m\u1ed9t n\u0103m h\u1ed1i h\u1ea3, b\u1eadn r\u1ed9n. T\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y th\u1ea3nh th\u01a1i n\u00e0y, m\u1eddi b\u1ea1n c\u00f9ng t\u00f4i suy ng\u1eabm m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong n\u0103m 2022 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u0103m sau \u0111\u00f3 n\u1eefa. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1eafc sai l\u1ea7m khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

Trong v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n qua v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 1, t\u00f4i \u0111ang nghi\u00eam t\u00fac vi\u1ebft ra nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong n\u0103m m\u1edbi. V\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 khi\u1ebfn t\u00f4i ph\u1ea3i \u0111au \u0111\u1ea7u \u201cv\u1eadt l\u1ed9n\u201d ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T.<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi tin r\u1eb1ng: t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i – \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, gi\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec7n\u2026) ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi. Khi m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n t\u1edbi – nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng – l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u0169ng s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m.\u00a0C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf s\u1ebd cao h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Hoa K\u1ef3. Tuy nhi\u00ean t\u00f4i v\u1eabn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng: n\u0103m t\u1edbi, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 h\u01a1n th\u1ebf n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu <\/b><\/strong>L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T KH\u00d4NG GI\u1ea2M <\/b><\/strong>th\u00ec sao?<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u1ea5t th\u1eddi, \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra?\u00a0S\u1ebd ra sao n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i xuy\u00ean su\u1ed1t n\u0103m 2022?\u00a0Chuy\u1ec7n g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao h\u01a1n khi\u1ebfn ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf gia t\u0103ng ch\u00f3ng m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 \u201cv\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y\u201d gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa? \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ebfn danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta?\u00a0Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u1ea5y, t\u00f4i v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn?<\/p>\n

\"Bi\u1ec3u
Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 cho th\u1ea5y L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t Hoa K\u1ef3, 1971 \u0111\u1ebfn 2021 – Ngu\u1ed3n: Bloomberg<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Khi xem x\u00e9t bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 tr\u00ean, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ngh\u0129 \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00fd do.<\/span> t\u1ea1i sao k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra. B\u1edfi nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng – gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed,.<\/span>ch\u00fang ta d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y: sau c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m. Ch\u00fang ta d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng g\u1ea1t b\u1ecf c\u00e1c nguy c\u01a1 ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y.<\/span>m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i suy x\u00e9t nhi\u1ec1u. M\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng sau m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng. Theo c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f3, t\u00f4i tin l\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m mong \u0111\u1ee3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n: M\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970 v\u00e0 1980.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd: trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 lu\u1eadt h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn<\/a>. Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u1ea1n ngh\u0129 v\u00e0 mong mu\u1ed1n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o th\u00ec s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf \u1ea5y. Trong su\u1ed1t 3 n\u0103m vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh<\/a> nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u (GFC),<\/strong> t\u00f4i nh\u1eadn ra: m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980 ho\u1eb7c 1990, ch\u1ee9 \u0111\u1eebng n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970. V\u00ec v\u1eady, \u201cb\u00f3ng ma l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103m 1970″ kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec v\u1eady, t\u00f4i bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m.<\/span>d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c (theo bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 tr\u00ean) ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng giai tho\u1ea1i. V\u00e0 t\u00f4i hi v\u1ecdng, b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn m\u1ecdi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 t\u00f4i.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eebng k\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n “th\u00eam m\u1eafm d\u1eb7m mu\u1ed1i”. \u0110\u1eebng ch\u1ee9ng minh vi\u1ec7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 \u00a0ng\u1ee5y hi\u1ec7n\u2026 H\u00e3y nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng: \u201cN\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta cho ph\u00e9p nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn m\u1ecdi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ngay b\u00e2y gi\u1edd th\u00ec nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t ngo\u00e0i t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t\u201d.<\/p>\n

>>> Xem th\u00eam: Nh\u1eadp m\u00f4n bitcoin – v\u00ec sao Bitcoin l\u00e0 “h\u00e0ng r\u00e0o th\u00e9p” ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t?<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/h5>\n

\u201cQuy t\u1eafc v\u00e0ng\u201d c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i l\u00e0: ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi\u201d.<\/span>khi b\u1ea1n t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111i\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng t\u00ecm ra b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c coi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ti\u1ebfn x\u1ea5u v\u00e0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngay b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi\u201d m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u1eb7t ra,.<\/span>c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra \u00fd ki\u1ebfn tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u. H\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u cho r\u1eb1ng: d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 b\u1ee9c tranh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd x\u1ea5u \u0111i trong n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

\"Bi\u1ec3u
Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 v\u1ec1 T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 PE \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 (CAPE). Ngu\u1ed3n: <\/i>Th\u01b0 vi\u1ec7n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u Robert Shiller<\/i><\/u><\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u00ec th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n tin r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng.<\/span> – gi\u1ea3m trong h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua; n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ngh\u0129 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i n\u1eefa.<\/span> th\u00ec ch\u00fang ta bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng:.<\/span>th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao.<\/p>\n

H\u00e0ng tr\u0103m bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 PE (CAPE) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo chu k\u1ef3 do Robert Shiller ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn cho th\u1ea5y:.<\/span>th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. Ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec v\u1eady, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00f3ng l\u00ean h\u1ed3i chu\u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o:.<\/span>\u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u1eabn t\u0103ng. V\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 sai trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u201c\u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 s\u1eafp gi\u1ea3m\u201d. <\/span>c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi t\u00f4i \u0111\u1eb7t ra d\u00e0nh cho b\u1ea1n l\u00e0: \u201cN\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec sao\u201d?<\/p>\n

H\u00e3y suy ng\u1eabm v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y.<\/span> v\u00e0 cho ch\u00fang t\u00f4i bi\u1ebft \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n \u1edf b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi nh\u00e9!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

***B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft g\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia s\u1ebb d\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Joachim Klement – \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ef9 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Vi\u1ec7n CFA. B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t d\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 Joachim Klement do BitcoinVN News th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n. V\u00e0o nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u d\u00e0nh th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 th\u01b0 gi\u00e3n, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":7125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nN\u0103m 2022, n\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec sao? - BitcoinVN Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i su\u1ed1t 2022, n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m... th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ban s\u1ebd ra sao?... 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