{"id":5175,"date":"2020-05-19T11:41:17","date_gmt":"2020-05-19T04:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.bitcoinvn.io\/?p=5175"},"modified":"2020-05-25T10:21:35","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T03:21:35","slug":"mo-hinh-bitcoin-luu-luong-thi-truong-s2fx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinvn.io\/insights\/vi\/mo-hinh-bitcoin-luu-luong-thi-truong-s2fx\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bitcoin L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (S2FX)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(B\u00e0i g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a PlanB<\/a> xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model<\/a> \u2013 B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi \u272a R)<\/em><\/p>\n

“\u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng trong khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 th\u1ef1c m\u1edbi m\u00e0 l\u00e0 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1ch m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 ch\u00fang” – William Lawrence Bragg<\/em><\/p>\n

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D\u1eabn nh\u1eadp<\/strong><\/h2>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bitcoin L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock-to-Flow) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 03\/2010<\/a>.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh BTC S2F g\u1ed1c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a S2F v\u00e0 gi\u00e1. V\u00ec d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eadp ch\u1ec9 m\u1ee5c theo th\u1ee9 t\u1ef1 th\u1eddi gian, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh time series (d\u00e3y th\u1eddi gian). M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn gi\u1eefa S2F v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 BTC.<\/p>\n

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\"M\u00f4
M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u01b0a quen v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F, t\u00f4i xin gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ecdc b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft g\u1ed1c<\/a> b\u1edfi v\u00ec b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n

Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y t\u00f4i c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecdng l\u1ea1i nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 th\u00eam c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c (b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng) v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh. T\u00f4i g\u1ecdi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u1edbi n\u00e0y l\u00e0 BTC S2F xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (S2FX). M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c, v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 Bitcoin v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a quy tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp, b\u1edfi v\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 BTC v\u00e0 S2F. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX l\u1ea1i quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

Ti\u1ebfp saud \u0111\u00f3, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX, c\u00e1ch m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00f3i l\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec.<\/p>\n

Quy tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX<\/strong><\/h2>\n

C\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i, m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c.\u00a0 S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c. Ba v\u00ed d\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0:<\/p>\n

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  1. N\u01b0\u1edbc<\/li>\n
  2. \u0110\u00f4 la M\u0129<\/li>\n
  3. BTC<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    N\u01b0\u1edbc<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc. N\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong b\u1ed1n h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i: R\u1eafn, l\u1ecfng, kh\u00ed, v\u00e0 ion. Ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u01b0ng n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau trong nh\u1eefng h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i k\u1ec3 tr\u00ean.<\/p>\n

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    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

    USD<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    C\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u0169ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0ng (1 \u0111\u00f4 la = 371.25 grain b\u1ea1c = 24 grain v\u00e0ng), sang \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ea3n v\u1ecb v\u00e0ng tr\u00ean l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft, r\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea3n v\u1ecb n\u00e0o c\u1ea3. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn g\u1ecdi ch\u00fang l\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4 la, nh\u01b0ng \u0110\u00f4 la c\u00f3 c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau trong ba gian \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n

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    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

    BTC<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    \u0110i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00fang v\u1edbi BTC. Nic Carter v\u00e0 Hasu \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd n\u0103m 2018 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 BTC thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n

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    \"G\u00f3c
    G\u00f3c nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 Bitcoin thay \u0111\u1ed5i qua th\u1eddi gian<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

    Nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn BTC n\u00e0y d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ti\u1ebfp n\u1ed1i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3. Tuy nhi\u00ean n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (v\u00e0 v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u S2F v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 sau n\u00e0y), ch\u00fang tr\u00f4ng r\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ee9t \u0111o\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

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    1. “Proof of Concept” -> Sau s\u00e1ch tr\u1eafng Bitcoin<\/li>\n
    2. “Thanh to\u00e1n” -> Sau khi ngang v\u1edbi USD (1 BTC = 1 USD)<\/li>\n
    3. “V\u00e0ng k\u0129 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1” -> Sau \u0111\u1ee3t Halving \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ngang gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng (1 BTC = 1 ounce v\u00e0ng)<\/li>\n
    4. T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh -> Sau \u0111\u1ee3t Halving th\u1ee9 hai (\u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ed1c 1 t\u1ec9 USD giao d\u1ecbch m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, ph\u00e1p l\u00ed r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng t\u1ea1i Nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 \u00dac, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng futures t\u1ea1i CME v\u00e0 Bakkt)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Ba v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0 BTC cho ch\u00fang ta c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 BTC v\u00e0 S2F. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian ti\u1ebfp n\u1ed1i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp kh\u00f4ng li\u1ec1n m\u1ea1ch. Trong khi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX, t\u00f4i xem BTC m\u1ed7i giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n m\u1edbi, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau. B\u01b0\u1edbc logic ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e1 c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a BTC.<\/p>\n

      M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh BTC S2F xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (S2FX)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u BTC S2F v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 theo th\u00e1ng d\u00f9ng trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F ban \u0111\u1ea7u. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng th\u1ea5y b\u1ed1n v\u00f9ng \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1eadp trung.<\/p>\n

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      \"S2FX\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

      B\u1ed1n v\u00f9ng t\u1eadp trung n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n 4 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n

      L\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e1 c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi t\u1ed1i gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1eefa d\u1eef li\u1ec7u BTC th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng. T\u00f4i d\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n di truy\u1ec1n (t\u1ed1i gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i) \u0111\u1ec3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e1 b\u1ed1n ph\u00e2n v\u00f9ng. C\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u sau n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadp trung thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n ri\u00eang l\u1ebb cho t\u1eebng v\u00f9ng (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 thu\u1eadn to\u00e1n k-means).<\/p>\n

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      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

      M\u1ed7i v\u00f9ng BTC \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng S2F r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 li\u00ean h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t Halving v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 BTC.<\/p>\n

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      1. BTC “Proof of Concept” (S2F 1.3 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 1 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4)<\/li>\n
      2. BTC “Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n thanh to\u00e1n” (S2F 3.3 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 58 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4)<\/li>\n
      3. BTC “V\u00e0ng k\u0129 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1” (S2F 10.2 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 5.6 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4)<\/li>\n
      4. BTC “T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh” (S2F 25.1 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 114 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 USD, b\u1ed1n v\u00f9ng BTC n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho b\u1ed1n t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau, m\u1ed7i lo\u1ea1i c\u00f3 g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh kh\u00e1c nhau. BTC “Proof of Concept” v\u1edbi S2F 1.3 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 1 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi BTC “T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh” v\u1edbi S2F 25 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 114 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4.<\/p>\n

        V\u1edbi c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng BTC nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau, t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00eam c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh “xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n” (Cross asset). V\u1edbi b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng t\u00f4i d\u00f9ng c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 stock (l\u01b0u tr\u1eef) v\u00e0 flow (d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n) t\u1eeb ph\u00e2n t\u00edch g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Jan Nieuwenhuijs v\u00e0 ultimo trong th\u00e1ng 12\/2019 t\u1eeb TradingView.<\/p>\n

        5. B\u1ea1c S2F 33.3 (900,000\/27,000 t\u1ea5n) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 561 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la<\/p>\n

        6. V\u00e0ng S2F 58.3 (190,000\/3,260 t\u1ea5n) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 10,088 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n

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        <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

        Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n b\u1ed1n v\u00f9ng BTC \u0111\u00e3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e1 (c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u00e1ng ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a BTC), b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng. Ch\u00fang t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o.<\/p>\n

        T\u00f4i d\u00f9ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy (regression) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX. L\u01b0u \u00fd s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t l\u1edbn v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F g\u1ed1c l\u00e0 t\u00f4i d\u00f9ng S2F c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00f4ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd gi\u1eefa S2F v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a s\u00e1u lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (F-test p-Values th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 p-Values th\u1ea5p) v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u1edbp ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o (R2 99.7%)<\/p>\n

        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n

        <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

        C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a giai \u0111o\u1ea1n\/v\u00f9ng BTC ti\u1ebfp theo (S2F BTC s\u1ebd l\u00e0 56 trong 2020-2024):<\/p>\n

        Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng = exp(12.7598) & 56 ^ 4.1167 = 5.5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la<\/p>\n

        \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i qua gi\u00e1 BTC (gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh 19 tri\u1ec7u BTC trong 2020-2024) l\u00e0 288,000 USD.<\/p>\n

        D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 BTC cao h\u01a1n con s\u1ed1 55,000 USD r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ban \u0111\u1ea7u. Xin l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX m\u1edbi l\u00e0 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng v\u00e0 xem x\u00e9t b\u1edfi ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

        M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u1ec9 quan s\u00e1t s\u00e1u lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 \u00edt, song t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng. T\u00f4i xem m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, nh\u01b0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F. C\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u sau n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n h\u01a1n v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. Tuy nhi\u00ean, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb S2F th\u1ea5p (<=1) th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan t\u00e2m. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, kim c\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 S2F cao nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1eadp (th\u00f4\/g\u1ecdt, cara, m\u00e0u s\u1eafc, \u0111\u1ed9 s\u00e1ng v\u00e2n v\u00e2n).<\/p>\n

        M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX gi\u00fap cho vi\u1ec7c n\u1ed9i suy, thay v\u00ec ngo\u1ea1i suy tr\u00f4ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F ban \u0111\u1ea7u. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ea1o ra d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o r\u01a1i ra ngo\u00e0i v\u00f9ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u00f9ng trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX m\u1edbi n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o r\u01a1i v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u00f9ng trong c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n
        \"V\u00ed
        V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 n\u1ed9i suy (tr\u00e1i) v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i suy (ph\u1ea3i) – m\u00e0u xanh d\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh, \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

        L\u1eddi k\u1ebft<\/strong><\/h2>\n

        Trong b\u00e0i n\u00e0y t\u00f4i c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecdng l\u1ea1i nguy\u00ean l\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 th\u00eam c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c (b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng) v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh. T\u00f4i g\u1ecdi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u1edbi n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh BTC S2F xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (S2FX). M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX cho ph\u00e9p vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c, v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 BTC v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

        T\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 BTC v\u00e0 S2F. V\u00e0 d\u1eabn t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX.<\/p>\n

        C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00edch ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u (R2 99.7%).<\/p>\n

        M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a giai \u0111o\u1ea1n\/v\u00f9ng BTC ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 5.5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la (BTC S2F s\u1ebd l\u00e0 56 trong 2020-2024). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y suy ra gi\u00e1 BTC (gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh 19 tri\u1ec7u BTC 2020-2024) l\u00e0 288,000 USD.<\/p>\n

        Tinh g\u1ecdn c\u00e1c ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb nghi\u00ean t\u1ee9c S2F ban \u0111\u1ea7u, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2FX cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a BTC sau giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ee9 n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

        Ngu\u1ed3n: Medium.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

        Tham kh\u1ea3o th\u00eam:<\/strong><\/p>\n

        M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Bitcoin: T\u00ednh khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock-to-Flow)<\/a><\/p>\n

        L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock to Flow) Bitcoin<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        (B\u00e0i g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a PlanB xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model \u2013 B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi \u272a R) “\u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng trong khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 th\u1ef1c m\u1edbi m\u00e0 l\u00e0 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1ch m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 ch\u00fang” – William Lawrence Bragg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":5180,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3813],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"\nM\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bitcoin L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (S2FX) - BV Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bitcoin L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock-to-Flow) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 03\/2010. 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