{"id":5012,"date":"2020-04-13T09:30:25","date_gmt":"2020-04-13T02:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.bitcoinvn.io\/?p=5012"},"modified":"2020-05-25T10:22:11","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T03:22:11","slug":"li-thuyet-thi-truong-hieu-qua-va-mo-hinh-stock-to-flow-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinvn.io\/insights\/vi\/li-thuyet-thi-truong-hieu-qua-va-mo-hinh-stock-to-flow-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock to Flow) Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"

(B\u00e0i g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a PlanB<\/a> xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model<\/a> \u2013 B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi \u272a R)<\/em><\/p>\n

D\u1eabn nh\u1eadp<\/strong><\/h2>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Stock to Flow (S2F)<\/a> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 03\/2019. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c t\u1eeb c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng Bitcoin v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F t\u00edch h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 d\u00f9ng trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F c\u0169ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c tranh lu\u1eadn ph\u1ea3n bi\u1ec7n. Trong \u0111\u00f3 lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (EMH). Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng khai v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y t\u00f4i s\u1ebd chia s\u1ebb quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecn S2F v\u00e0 EMH. T\u00f4i s\u1ebd ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i arbitrage (ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1), m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i sinh.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock to Flow)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Bitcoin, l\u1ea5y c\u1ea3m h\u1ee9ng t\u1eeb l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm c\u1ee7a Nick Szabo v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Saifedean Ammous v\u1ec1 S2F. S2F l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00ednh khan hi\u1ebfm. Quy lu\u1eadt gi\u1eefa S2F v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 Bitcoin theo th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi, theo m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 b\u1edfi Trace Mayer.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m lu\u1ef9 th\u1eeba kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian th\u00e1ng 10\/2009 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 02\/2019. Gi\u00e1 BTC = 0.4 * S2F ^ 3 (v\u1edbi S2F = 1 \/ t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t). M\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng n\u0103m t\u1eeb 2009 \u0111\u1ebfn 2019 theo c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cao h\u01a1n: Gi\u00e1 BTC = 0.18 * S2F ^ 3.3<\/p>\n

\"L\u00ed Nick Phraudsta l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn (hay ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ecbnh) m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F. Anh c\u0169ng th\u00eam c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00edch h\u1ee3p, ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng sai l\u1ea7m. Marcel Burger x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c c\u1ea3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F v\u00e0 cointegration (ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t) v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng. Manuel Andersch l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean (BayernLB) x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F v\u00e0 cointegration.<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/strong><\/h2>\n

EMH l\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng trong ng\u00e0nh kinh t\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Friedrich Hayek (Gi\u1ea3i Nobel 1974) v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c. Theo nh\u01b0 Hayek, c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng x\u1eed l\u00ed th\u00f4ng tin, \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

EMH \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 b\u1edfi Eugene Fama (Gi\u1ea3i Nobel 2013) v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ba m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. EMH y\u1ebfu: D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 sinh l\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eefa. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u0129 thu\u1eadt (Technical Analysis<\/a>) v\u00e0 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch D\u00f2ng Th\u1eddi gian (Time Series Analysis) kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng.<\/li>\n
  2. EMH trung b\u00ecnh: Tin t\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng khai t\u1eeb ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 MSNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm l\u1eddi. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (Fundamental Analysis<\/a>) kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng.<\/li>\n
  3. EMH m\u1ea1nh: Cho d\u00f9 l\u00e0 tin t\u1ee9c n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh hi\u1ec7u t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh (Hay n\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi EMH y\u1ebfu ho\u1eb7c EMH trung b\u00ecnh). Tuy nhi\u00ean h\u1ecd ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ecbnh EMH m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

    Theo nh\u01b0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh S2F c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1. V\u00ec m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng khai.<\/p>\n

    Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    N\u00f3i th\u1eadt, t\u00f4i ch\u01b0a h\u1ec1 d\u00f9ng EMH tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp trong h\u01a1n 20 n\u0103m kinh nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ec9 Euro. Trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/em> EMH, v\u00e0 d\u00f9ng<\/em> m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

    Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh EMH<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tranh lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, nh\u01b0ng t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd. Trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mua Bitcoin t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch USD v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00e1t sau b\u00e1n ch\u00fang t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c s\u00e0n EUR hay JPY v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 USD. Mua b\u00e1n ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u1ea3 thi. Nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n, nh\u01b0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n trong b\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y (gi\u00e1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m 13\/01\/2010, 20:00 GMT):<\/p>\n

    BTCUSD = 8100
    \nBTCEUR = 7300
    \nBTCUSD\/BTCEUR = 8100\/7300 = 1.11
    \nEURUSD = 1.11<\/em><\/p>\n

    BTCJPY = 885.000
    \nBTCJPY\/BTCUSD = 885.000\/8100 = 109
    \nUSDJPY = 109<\/em><\/p>\n

    C\u00f3 l\u1ebd nh\u1eefng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh l\u1edbn, c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n giao d\u1ecbch tu\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t cao<\/a> (HFT) v\u1eabn ki\u1ebfm l\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Tuy nhi\u00ean arbitrage kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 x\u01b0a.<\/p>\n

    Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin 150 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 v\u1edbi 10 t\u1ec9 giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

    M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh R\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (Risk & Return)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft EMH kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. M\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro. EMH v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n arbitrage d\u1eabn ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

    Harry Markowitz (Gi\u1ea3i Nobel 1990) gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh risk & return kh\u00e1 s\u1edbm v\u1edbi L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft Danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng. William Sharpe (Gi\u1ea3i Nobel 1990) xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n V\u1ed1n (Capital Asset Pricing Model – CAPM). Theo nh\u01b0 Markowitz v\u00e0 Sharpe, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 kho\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n

    \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n (kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan hay c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p):<\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \"D\u1eef
    D\u1eef li\u1ec7u tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, v\u00e0ng, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu: 1955-2019. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u Bitcoin: 2009-2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

    Hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng, ch\u00fang ta ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u0129 h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

    Tr\u1ee5c X c\u1ee7a bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro (kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 t\u1ed1i \u0111a m\u1ed7i n\u0103m) v\u00e0 tr\u1ee5c Y l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (kho\u1ea3n l\u1eddi trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m).<\/p>\n

    Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n ba lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng: Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t 8% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t 6%. V\u00e0ng c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n l\u00e0 33% v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n l\u1eddi c\u0169ng cao h\u01a1n t\u1ea1i 7.5%. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro cao nh\u1ea5t, 40% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u0169ng cao nh\u1ea5t 8%.<\/p>\n

    \u0110i\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch b\u1edfi r\u1ee7i ro, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi EMH. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n b\u1eaft g\u1eb7p m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed1t. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n (t\u1eeb g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn EMH v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng arbitrage) l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i n\u00e0y qu\u00e1 t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c (too good to be true). Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh t\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro (ho\u1eb7c t\u00ednh sai r\u1ee7i ro) v\u00e0 n\u00ean t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. Vi\u1ec7c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro (\u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng) kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5, v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m b\u1edfi c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia quants c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ednh ra r\u1ee7i ro nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y bi\u1ebft ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u1ea1i sao t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng gi\u00e1, th\u00ec l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi n\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

    Bitcoin v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i ki\u1ec3u bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 n\u00e0y: L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 200%, r\u1ee7i ro 80%. V\u00ec t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n n\u00f3 l\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3, t\u00f4i ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c 1% bitcoin c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam 99% \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t. Kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Bitcoin n\u00e0y c\u0169ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n th\u1ea3y, 8% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi 1% r\u1ee7i ro (l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5t h\u01a1n 1% d\u00f9 Bitcoin c\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m 99%, v\u00ec b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 1%). N\u00ean ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i l\u00e0: Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra:<\/p>\n