{"id":4999,"date":"2020-04-07T17:02:12","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T10:02:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.bitcoinvn.io\/?p=4999"},"modified":"2023-11-09T16:46:28","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T09:46:28","slug":"sai-lam-cua-mo-hinh-du-doan-gia-bitcoin-bang-ty-le-stock-to-flow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinvn.io\/insights\/vi\/sai-lam-cua-mo-hinh-du-doan-gia-bitcoin-bang-ty-le-stock-to-flow\/","title":{"rendered":"Sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 Bitcoin b\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Stock to Flow"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stock: Tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/p>\n

Flow: L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Stock to flow = stock\/flow<\/p>\n

Stock-to-Flow<\/a> trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp, cho ph\u00e9p \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh m\u1ee9c v\u1ed1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c thu nh\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. Sau \u0111\u00f3, kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n n\u00f3i chung.<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stock to flow l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o th\u1eddi gian. V\u1edbi 1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 cao h\u01a1n, ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n s\u1ebd t\u0103ng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n. C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stock to flow cao h\u01a1n s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/a> ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u00edt h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y cao h\u01a1n h\u00e0m \u00fd \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee9ng h\u01a1n do ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ecdc th\u00eam:\u00a0M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Bitcoin: T\u00ednh khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock-to-Flow)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"T\u00e1c
T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: Eric Voskuil<\/a> – Libbitcoin Institute<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng xem x\u00e9t ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. N\u00f3 nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t. Nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 th\u1ee9 g\u00ec ch\u1ec9 x\u1ea3y ra khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1edbn h\u01a1n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea1nh tranh nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u0103ng. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e0o v\u00e0ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Flow l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u Demand. M\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u1ecb l\u1ed7 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. S\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 Flow n\u00e0o kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 trong v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t m\u00e0 l\u00e0 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu nhu c\u1ea7u. Cho r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3 cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Flow, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea7m c\u00f3 t\u1eeb l\u00e2u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m stock-to-Flow, m\u00e0 do b\u1ecb \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng sai.<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi lu\u1eadt ch\u1ed1ng h\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3, do c\u1ea1nh tranh in ti\u1ec1n ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ecb c\u1ea5m, n\u00ean ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o l\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c, cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u n\u00f3i chung l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. M\u1ed9t ti\u1ec3u bang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eb7p v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng. M\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Stock to flow s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c khi bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee9ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u00f3 khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho v\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

Cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stock to flow l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, tuy nhi\u00ean m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft. N\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. N\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u00e0o cho r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1<\/a> s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stock to flow<\/a> trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n d\u1ecbch: github.com\/libbitcoin<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock: Tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Flow: L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Stock to flow = stock\/flow Stock-to-Flow trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp, cho ph\u00e9p \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh m\u1ee9c v\u1ed1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c thu nh\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. Sau \u0111\u00f3, kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho ngu\u1ed3n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5001,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3813],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"\nSai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 Bitcoin b\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Stock to Flow - BitcoinVN Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"H\u00e3y c\u00f9ng c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a BitcoinVN ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Stock to Flow v\u00e0 t\u00ecm ra gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u1ed1i \u01b0u nh\u00e9!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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