{"id":4585,"date":"2020-01-11T21:29:23","date_gmt":"2020-01-11T14:29:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.bitcoinvn.io\/?p=4585"},"modified":"2020-05-25T10:22:53","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T03:22:53","slug":"mo-hinh-dinh-gia-bitcoin-stock-to-flow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinvn.io\/insights\/vi\/mo-hinh-dinh-gia-bitcoin-stock-to-flow\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Bitcoin: T\u00ednh khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock-to-Flow)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(B\u00e0i g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a PlanB<\/a> xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity<\/a>\u00a0– B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi Bao Phuong Nguyen<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n

Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Satoshi Nakamoto \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n S\u00e1ch Tr\u1eafng (white paper) Bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 31\/10\/2018 [1],\u00a0 t\u1ea1o ra kh\u1ed1i genesis bitcoin 03 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009 v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh m\u00e3 bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 08 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bitcoin (BTC) tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 70 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00f4m nay.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 mang t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t khan hi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y. T\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi kim lo\u1ea1i v\u00e0ng & b\u1ea1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eedi qua m\u1ea1ng internet, s\u00f3ng radio, v\u1ec7 tinh, v\u00e2n v\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

\u201cH\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t kim lo\u1ea1i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n khan hi\u1ebfm nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i mang c\u00e1c t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t sau: M\u00e0u x\u00e1m, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ea5t d\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1ed1t, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh […], kh\u00f4ng h\u1eefu \u00edch cho b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf hay trang tr\u00ed n\u00e0o, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t ma thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0: c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n th\u00f4ng qua k\u00eanh li\u00ean l\u1ea1c” – Nakamoto [2]<\/p>\n

Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb bao nhi\u00eau? Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd \u0111em s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm n\u00e0y \u0111i \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c stock-to-flow \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ra m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Scarcity and Stock-to-Flow)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

T\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3n hay \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm l\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1eadt n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y ho\u1eb7c s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng”, v\u00e0 \u201cs\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3”<\/p>\n

Nick Szabo c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a h\u1eefu \u00edch h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u201cchi ph\u00ed b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c” (Unforgeable costliness)<\/p>\n

\u201c\u0110\u1ed3 c\u1ed5, th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec3m chung g\u00ec?\u201d Ch\u00fang r\u1ea5t t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m, do chi ph\u00ed ban \u0111\u1ea7u ho\u1eb7c do t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3 m\u1ea1o s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eaft gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y. C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c n\u00e0y tr\u00ean m\u00e1y t\u00ednh. N\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua c\u00e1c c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf n\u00e0y, th\u00ec ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t” – Szabo [3]<\/p>\n

\u201cC\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3 s\u01b0u t\u1eadp c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 khan hi\u1ebfm b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, v\u00ec r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng cung c\u1ea5p cho ti\u1ec1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t b\u00ean th\u1ee9 ba \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady n\u00e0o. [Nh\u01b0ng], c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qua internet. Do \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t giao th\u1ee9c n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb khan hi\u1ebfm b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c, v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean internet, c\u00f3 \u00edt s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t b\u00ean th\u1ee9 ba, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 an ninh t\u1ed1t, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 trung chuy\u1ec3n, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng m\u00e0 \u00edt ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb th\u1ee9 ba. V\u00e0ng s\u1ed1\u201d – Szabo [4]<\/p>\n

Bitcoin c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c n\u00e0y, b\u1edfi v\u00ec c\u1ea7n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec7n n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra bitcoin. S\u1ef1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Bitcoin kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3 m\u1ea1o. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng altcoins<\/a> kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng-ch\u1ee9ng-c\u00f4ng-vi\u1ec7c \u201cProof-Of-Work\u201d (PoW), c\u00f3 hash rate th\u1ea5p, ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi ho\u1eb7c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n cung.<\/p>\n

Saifedean Ammous n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm tr\u00ean ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stock-to-flow (SF). \u00d4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 bitcoin r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed3ng, k\u1ebdm, niken, \u0111\u1ed3ng thau, v\u00ec v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 bitcoin c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF cao.<\/p>\n

\u201cV\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u00e0o [..], t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef, gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i cho c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1edf h\u1eefu. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng, s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1eb1ng n\u0103m s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, t\u0103ng 3% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef thay v\u00ec 1.5%\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 cung v\u00e0ng lu\u00f4n th\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec1u, ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u00fd do c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n gi\u00fap n\u00f3 duy tr\u00ec vai tr\u00f2 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong su\u1ed1t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i”<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (stock-to-flow ratio) cao c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng khi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cL\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef c\u1ee7a Bitcoin trong n\u0103m 2017 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 25 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2017. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn \u00edt h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng, nh\u01b0ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin s\u1ebd qua m\u1eb7t v\u00e0ng” – Ammous [5]<\/p>\n

Th\u1ebf n\u00ean, s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng SF.<\/p>\n

SF = stock \/ flow<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Stock l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3. Flow l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. Thay v\u00ec SF, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u0169ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ngu\u1ed3n cung (flow\/stock). L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng SF = 1 \/ t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ngu\u1ed3n cung<\/p>\n

C\u00f9ng tham kh\u1ea3o m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 Stock-to-Flow<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\"M\u00f4<\/p>\n

V\u00e0ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF cao nh\u1ea5t, m\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 62 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 B\u1ea1c, SF 22. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF cao n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang th\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

Palladium, b\u1ea1ch kim v\u00e0 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 1. L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eb1ng ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1eb1ng n\u0103m, l\u00e0m cho vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng. H\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1, b\u1edfi v\u00ec khi c\u00f3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch tr\u1eef, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng, n\u00ean s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t s\u1ebd t\u0103ng, v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m. R\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 tho\u00e1t ra kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1i v\u00f2ng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Bitcoin hi\u1ec7n gi\u1edd v\u00e0o t\u1ea7m kho\u1ea3ng 17.5 tri\u1ec7u, v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u00f3 th\u00eam 0.7 tri\u1ec7u, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF = 25. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7t bitcoin v\u00e0o danh m\u1ee5c h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin hi\u1ec7n gi\u1edd v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 70 t\u1ef7 \u0110\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n

T\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 Bitcoin l\u00e0 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh. Bitcoin m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra trong m\u1ed7i kh\u1ed1i m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0o. Trung b\u00ecnh s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0o m\u1ed7i 10 ph\u00fat, khi c\u00e1c th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0m b\u0103m m\u00e3 ho\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 tho\u1ea3 m\u00e3n PoW. Giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i kh\u1ed1i, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 coinbase, ch\u1ee9a ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng cho th\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0o t\u00ecm ra kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea5y. Ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng bao g\u1ed3m: ph\u00ed m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u1ea3 cho c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch trong kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra (Subsidy). Subsidy b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi 50 bitcoin, v\u00e0 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e2n n\u1eeda sau 210,000 kh\u1ed1i (t\u1ea7m kho\u1ea3ng 4 n\u0103m). \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m n\u1eeda (halving) r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi bitcoin v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF. Halving<\/a> c\u0169ng t\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ngu\u1ed3n cung (trong ng\u1eef c\u1ea3nh bitcoin th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7”) b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng su\u00f4n s\u1ebb.<\/p>\n

\"M\u00f4<\/p>\n

Stock-to-Flow v\u00e0 Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft trong b\u00e0i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o \u0111\u1ea1c b\u1edfi SF. Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o b\u1ea3ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u00ean tr\u00ean, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng khi SF t\u0103ng. B\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u<\/h3>\n

T\u1eebng th\u00e1ng, t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Bitcoin. T\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12\/2009 t\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 2\/2019 (t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 111 \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u). S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy v\u1ea5n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb bitcoin blockchain b\u1eb1ng Python\/RPC\/bitcoind. S\u1ed1 kh\u1ed1i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, b\u1edfi v\u00ec c\u00e1c kh\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ed7i 10 ph\u00fat (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: trong n\u0103m 2009 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng block (kh\u1ed1i) \u00edt h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u). V\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ed1i m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng block c\u00f3 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p subsidy, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra m\u1ed7i n\u0103m (flow) v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 (stock). T\u00f4i c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch b\u1ecf qua 1 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean (7 th\u00e1ng) trong th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF. T\u00f4i s\u1ebd nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u00eam trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n cho l\u01b0\u1ee3ng coin b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 7\/2010. T\u00f4i th\u00eam gi\u00e1 Bitcoin<\/a> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean ($1 cho 1309 BTC v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10\/2009, b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 $0.003 tr\u00ean Bitcoin Market v\u00e0o 3\/2010, 2 chi\u1ebfc b\u00e1nh pizza tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 $41 cho 10,000 BTC v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5\/2010).\u00a0 Kh\u1ea3o c\u1ed5 h\u1ecdc d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 cho nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u cho v\u00e0ng (SF 62, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 8.5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD) v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c (SF 22, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 308 t\u1ef7 USD), m\u00e0 t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec3m chu\u1ea9n.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh<\/h3>\n

Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a SF v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n l\u00e0 n\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb logarithmic ho\u1eb7c axis cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, b\u1edfi v\u00ec n\u00f3 tr\u1ea3i d\u00e0i qua 8 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb\u00a0 (t\u1eeb $10,000 t\u1edbi $100 tri\u1ec7u). S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb logarit v\u00e0 axis cho SF c\u0169ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb \u0111i l\u00ean (gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch: \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb h\u00e0m s\u1ed1 y = ax+b) gi\u1eefa ln(SF) v\u00e0 ln(gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng). L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng logarit t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (ln v\u1edbi c\u01a1 s\u1edf e) v\u00e0 logarit kh\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea5y (log v\u1edbi c\u01a1 s\u1edf 10), s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Linear regression v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, ta th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean: m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u1eefa SF v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (95% R2, \u00fd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a F 2.3E-17, p-Value c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c 2.3E-17). Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng do t\u00ecnh c\u1edd g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7, hack v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tin t\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do v\u00ec sao R2 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 100% (v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ch\u1ea5m \u0111\u1ec1u \u1edf tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0u \u0111en). Tuy nhi\u00ean, y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm \/ SF<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ea5t th\u00fa v\u1ecb l\u00e0 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c, trong khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u1ebfp v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i c\u00f9ng trong m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SF v\u1edbi bitcoin. \u0110\u00f3 c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean l\u00f2ng tin cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y. L\u01b0u \u00fd t\u1eb1ng t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12\/2017, SF c\u1ee7a bitcoin l\u00e0 22 v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb l\u00e0 230 t\u1ef7 \u0110\u00f4 la, r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi b\u1ea1c.<\/p>\n

B\u1edfi v\u00ec s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n halving c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn t\u1edbi SF, t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec3 kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng t\u00f4 m\u00e0u tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng cho t\u1edbi khi c\u00f3 halving ti\u1ebfp theo. M\u00e0u xanh \u0111\u1eadm l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 halving, m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf l\u00e0 ngay sau khi s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra. L\u1ea7n halving ti\u1ebfp theo s\u1ebd l\u00e0 2020. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i SF l\u00e0 25 v\u00e0 s\u1ebd th\u00e0nh 50, r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng (SF 62).<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n sau halving th\u00e1ng 5\/2020 l\u00e0 1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD, v\u1eady th\u00ec gi\u00e1 bitcoin s\u1ebd v\u00e0o t\u1ea7m kho\u1ea3ng 55,000 USD. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00e1 l\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1n m\u1ee5c. T\u00f4i \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian s\u1ebd cho ch\u00fang ta c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi v\u00e0o t\u1ea7m kho\u1ea3ng 1 ho\u1eb7c 2 n\u0103m sau khi halving, v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020 v\u00e0 2021. \u0110\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u1ecfi t\u00f4i ngu\u1ed3n ti\u1ec1n cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin 1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2u? C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi l\u00e0: b\u1ea1c, v\u00e0ng, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u00e2m (ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, s\u1eafp t\u1edbi s\u1ebd l\u00e0 M\u1ef9), qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p nh\u01b0 Venezuela, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Iran, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3,…, c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 ph\u00fa v\u00e0 tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a 10 n\u0103m qua.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3\u00a0 d\u1ef1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 bitcoin tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi SF. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nhau, nh\u01b0ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1eabn nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, 95% R2 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Bitcoin l\u00e0 $55,000 v\u1edbi SF l\u00e0 50 sau halving 2020.<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 v\u1ebd gi\u00e1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bitcoin d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean SF (\u0111\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0u \u0111en) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 bitcoin th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf theo th\u1eddi gian, v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ed1i l\u00e0 l\u1edbp ph\u1ee7 m\u00e0u (c\u1ed9t m\u00e0u b\u00ean tr\u00e1i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00fang nh\u01b0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00ednh to\u00e1n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 di\u1ec5n ra g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c sau halving th\u00e1ng 11\/2012. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 sau th\u00e1ng 6\/2016 ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 do Ethereum<\/a> c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c DAO b\u1ecb hack. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean 2009, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 \u00edt blocks h\u01a1n trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng (m\u00e0u xanh d\u01b0\u01a1ng) v\u00e0 trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2011, gi\u1eefa 2015 v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i 2018. S\u1ef1 ra \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a m\u00e1y \u0111\u00e0o GPU 2010-2011 v\u00e0 ASIC v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng blocks m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf)<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin<\/a> l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. N\u00f3 hi\u1ebfm nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c & v\u00e0ng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eedi qua m\u1ea1ng internet, s\u00f3ng radio, v\u1ec7 tinh\u2026<\/p>\n

Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Nh\u01b0ng bao nhi\u00eau? Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Stock-To-Flow v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Stock-To-Flow \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb bitcoin.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u1eefa l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (stock-to-flow) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (market value). Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do t\u00ecnh c\u1edd g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u00eam ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh:<\/p>\n

V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c l\u00e0 hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c, c\u0169ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb bitcoin d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean SF.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 power law.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bitcoin l\u00e0 1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la sau khi halving th\u00e1ng 5\/2020, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 bitcoin l\u00e0 55.000 \u0111\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Medium<\/a><\/p>\n

Tham kh\u1ea3o th\u00eam:<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock to Flow) Bitcoin<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bitcoin L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Xuy\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (S2FX)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(B\u00e0i g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a PlanB xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity\u00a0– B\u1ea3n d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi Bao Phuong Nguyen) Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u Satoshi Nakamoto \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n S\u00e1ch Tr\u1eafng (white paper) Bitcoin v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 31\/10\/2018 [1],\u00a0 t\u1ea1o ra kh\u1ed1i genesis bitcoin 03 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2009 v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh m\u00e3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":4591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3813],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"\nM\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Bitcoin: T\u00ednh khan hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 L\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Stock-to-Flow) - BitcoinVN Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 mang t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t khan hi\u1ebfm. 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